This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their competitions somewhat and I like the new selection of contests and prizes. The most important GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at the $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate to get money games, and that I was only going to pick the main event stack for my cash game play of this week. However, I can see the main event just scoring ~100 total points and once I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the pile and I think Shane Young makes a great cash game play. I really don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has since I do think this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he has a high floor because this fight should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he has 100-point upside into a decision, and I think he can complete this battle. However, I feel like he’s a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he’s my cash game play of this week instead of my GPP play. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang the toes too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is why he is my GPP play of the week rather than my cash game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in higher flooring and that’s not what we’ve got here. I like this more for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it won’t matter how many things he has, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a profit if he lost a decision at the price and scored 30-40 points, we’d simply have to hit our other areas. We do not want 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside since he will be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him becoming numerous takedowns in addition to a submission. I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round entry and I do not expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually choosing Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this struggle to remain standing for as long as it continues. I personally see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s the case, then I think Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to function with and he will land a fair number of shots. In addition, I think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not put him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he will probably be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he’s my underdog drama of this week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I’ve picked him as my fade every time he has fought so that I will roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score highly is by getting a win. He does not strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and he will not be heading for almost any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be enough to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter once I roll them and together with his $7.9k price label, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that is why he’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 54-34 to get +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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